Milder-than-average winter favored for West Virginia through February

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — As the calendar passes Midwinter Day on Jan. 15, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say late winter in West Virginia is likely to lean milder than average overall, even as the Mountain State remains vulnerable to periodic cold snaps and snowstorms through the end of February.

According to the administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the agency’s seasonal outlook for the remainder of meteorological winter favors above-normal temperatures across much of the eastern United States, including most of West Virginia.

The outlook covers broad trends rather than day-to-day forecasts, indicating that warmer-than-average conditions are more likely than sustained deep cold as January turns to February. That does not mean winter weather is over.

“Seasonal outlooks describe probabilities, not guarantees,” administration forecasters caution. “Cold air outbreaks and winter storms can still occur even in winters that average warmer than normal.”

What the outlook shows

The administration's winter outlooks divide the country into regions where temperatures and precipitation are more likely to be above, near, or below long-term averages. For West Virginia, the signal tilts toward milder conditions overall, particularly in late January and February.

Precipitation probabilities show near- to above-normal moisture for much of the Appalachians. In practical terms, that means West Virginia can still experience significant rainfall and snowfall, depending on storm tracks and cold-air timing.

Because long-range outlooks do not predict individual storms, the administration does not issue seasonal snowfall totals. Whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depends on short-term weather patterns that typically come into focus only days in advance.

Midwinter reality in the mountains

Climatologically, Jan. 15 marks the midpoint of meteorological winter, which runs from Dec. 1 through Feb. 28. Historically, some of West Virginia’s most memorable winter storms, including heavy snows and ice events, have occurred after mid-January.

Higher elevations in the Alleghenies and eastern mountains remain especially susceptible to snow and freezing conditions, even during winters that average warmer statewide. Valleys and lower elevations, meanwhile, are more likely to experience mixed precipitation or rain under marginal temperature conditions.

Short-term forecasts still matter most

The administration emphasizes that its seasonal outlook should not replace daily forecasts from the National Weather Service. The agency’s medium-range forecasts, which extend seven to 14 days, provide much clearer guidance on approaching cold fronts, winter storms, and temperature swings.

For residents, travelers, and outdoor recreation businesses across West Virginia, the message is one of cautious balance: expect fewer prolonged deep freezes than in harsher winters, but remain prepared for episodic snow, ice, and bitter cold through February.

Bottom line for West Virginia

Overall trend: Milder-than-average temperatures favored through late winter

Precipitation: Near- to above-normal, meaning winter storms remain possible

Snowfall: Dependent on short-term weather patterns, not predictable months ahead

Winter, in other words, still has plenty of say left in the Mountain State, even if it may not be as relentless as in colder years past.

For updated local forecasts and winter weather advisories, readers should consult their local National Weather Service office or NOAA’s daily outlooks.

Weather for spring 2026

Based on the prediction center’s early seasonal signals, spring 2026 in West Virginia is shaping up to be warmer than average overall, with temperatures favored to run above long-term norms from March through May, particularly by late spring.

Precipitation is expected to be near to slightly above normal, a pattern that often brings periods of heavy rain rather than prolonged drought, increasing the risk of high water and localized flooding while also supporting early green-up across the state.

As is typical for Appalachia, spring will likely feature wide swings in conditions, including brief late-season cold snaps and the potential for strong storms, but the broader outlook suggests an earlier, milder transition out of winter rather than a cold, delayed spring.